What is church growth, and how is it quantified?

The following is an excerpt from the literature review portion of my dissertation…

Church Metrics

Isaiah (2017), Marpaung (2019), and Hayward (2018) submit four metric areas of church growth. First, biological growth, which occurs when the children of church members grow up and enter the church through a profession of faith. Second, there is transfer growth. Transfer growth occurs when a church receives members from another Christian church. This growth often happens at the expense of other churches, which is at least in part responsible for the decline of smaller churches (Marpaung, 2019). This type of growth may increase the rolls of a local church, but it does not enlarge the kingdom of God. Third, there is restorative growth. This occurs when lapsed Christians return to active engagement and attendance. Black (2021) contends this often happens when young adults, who were raised in the church, have children and want to make sure their children are raised in church. Fourth, there is conversion growth. Conversion occurs when individuals make a first-time profession of faith and place their faith in the Lord Jesus as Savior (Penfold, 2019). Earls (2019) reports that rapid growth through conversion is currently uncommon. The healthiest of churches grow from all four of the above categories (Penfold, 2019).

In answering the question concerning what quantifies church growth, Penfold (2019) provides the most thorough numerical description. He clarifies that a growing church experiences losses and gains every year. According to their research, healthy churches show a 5% cumulative gain every year. On average a church will typically lose 10% of their worship attendance annually: 1% to death, 6% to transfers, and 3% to dropouts. Healthy churches typically see the following gains in a typical year: 5% conversion growth, 2.5% biological growth, 7.5% transfer growth. This means that a growing church will lose about 10% per year yet will offset that decline with a 15% gain, resulting in a 5% growth rate. Of course, some will far exceed this rate (Penfold, 2019).

There are two primary ways a church can obtain external growth: conversion or transfer (Davis, Bell, and Payne, 2010). Conversion growth is an indicator of the success a church has experienced in reaching into its community and winning people to Christ. Transfer growth occurs when attendees from one church decide to move to a new church rather than be converted (Penfold, 2019). Many churches are growing by members switching churches (Davis, Bell, and Payne, 2010). However, it should be noted that not every pastor agrees that transfer growth is a sign of church health as this kind of growth is absent of conversions and baptisms (Dunaetz and Priddy, 2013; Penfold, 2019). Conversion would be akin to reaching into new markets in business, while transfer growth would be akin to reaching into existing markets (Davis, Bell, and Payne, 2010).

Transfer growth may lead an individual church to experience numerical growth, but overall, it does not add to the kingdom. Additionally, transfer growth is widely acknowledged as a leading factor for the success of mega-churches (Davis, Bell, and Payne, 2010). A megachurch is defined as a church with 2000 or more regular attendees (Symons, 2020). These transfers may be due to Christians moving from one area to another but also are the result of Christians changing churches for social or doctrinal reasons (Isaiah, 2017) as well as the preaching, a great youth ministry program, a home school network, and even the personality of the pastor (Penfold, 2019). The success of the mega church is a false perception that The Church overall is growing (Black, 2021). Church affiliation, therefore, is seen as a choice. Member transfers have become so common we have coined the phrase “church shopping” to describe this phenomenon (Roozen, 2015). Those congregations that stick out tend to attract these consumers.

Bibliography

Black, B. (2021). Built on the Sand: Biblical Solutions to the Crash of Church Attendance. Wipf and Stock Publishers.

Davis, J. L., Bell, R. G., & Payne, G. T. (2010). Stale in the pulpit? Leader tenure and the relationship between market growth strategy and church performance. International Journal of Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Marketing, 15(4), 352-368. https://doi.org/10.1002/nvsm.397

Dunaetz, D. R., & Priddy, K. E. (2013). Pastoral attitudes that predict numerical church growth. Great Commission Research Journal, 6(1), 30

Earls, Aaron. ‘How Many US Churches Are Actually Growing?’ Lifeway Research, 6 March 2019

Hayward, J. (2018). Mathematical modeling of church growth: A system dynamics approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:1805.08482.

Marpaung, A. M. (2020). Evangelism Program as the Main Strategy of Church Growth in Grace Bible Church of Mamasa, West Sulawesi. Ginosko: Jurnal Teologi Praktika, 1(2), 98-106.

Penfold, G. E. (2019). Reach, Assimilate and Develop: Essential Keys for the Resurgence of the Church in America. Great Commission Research Journal, 10(2), 50-71. Retrieved from https://digitalarchives.apu.edu/gcrj/vol10/iss2/4

Roozen, David A. “American Congregations 2015: Thriving and Surviving,” A Faith Communities Today Research Report (Hartford, Conn.: Hartford Institute for Religious Research), 9–12. https://faithcommunitiestoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/American-Congregations-2015.pdf

Symons, M., & Maddox, M. (2020). THE CONSOLATION OF PROFIT. New Formations, (99), 110-126. http://dx.doi.org/10.3898/NEWF:99.06.2019